The conditions are finally coming together for the 1st decent setup of the year. The most important part is the pattern change that is bringing a big trough into the west and starting some decent return flow off the gulf. Though the return flow still remains a big question, though it seems 60 degree dew points are likely. The NAM is faster with this return of 60's a whole 2 days before the event (about 500 miles further inland at 84 hrs). That can make a big difference.
Here is the 500mb at 12z (6am)from the GFS on the first potential day at this point, April 2nd.
Also here is the GFS dew points that evening 0z.
My bigggest issue I have at this point is the 500mb winds are due north across most of the warm sector which isnt yeild very good wind profiles and is parallel to the dryline, which will surely result in crapvection. The only target that seems reasonable at this point would be Fredricksburg, TX (San Antonio in TX hill country... booo). I am hoping for atleast a decent chance with this first wave. The GFS has been consistant in keeping this pattern in place after this storm with more setups after this one with better moisture in place. These potential second setups have more SW flow which is much more conducive of isolated development.
The most important thing is the season is HERE!
I have bought a bunch of new toys to try out this year including some video stream enhancements. I am going to have an icon on so you can see which way I am traveling at the time the video is taking. It may even be work good enough to show which way I am facing when I am not moving (or atleast the last know direction of movement). I also bought some new mounting options for my laptop and cameras. My stream camera can now be turn and moved around very easy. I also bought laptop mount for my Saturn Ion so I can chase the targets further away with less concerns about gas prices (32mpg compared to 17mpg from the Jeep). I had to buy a camera mount attachment so I can stream from my Ion, which arrives this week. I cant wait to test it out. My biggest improvement might be the Verizon data card to go along with the amp and antenna I already had. My stream stability should be improved greatly.
I am just ready for the chase to be on!